January 20, 2026
Medicare Advantage plans
4.7x ROI for Medicare Advantage plans with fewer surgeries
MSK conditions are among the most expensive drivers of healthcare spend in the U.S., and the challenge intensifies as Medicare Advantage populations age.¹ ² For many plans, surgery and downstream interventions remain a persistent source of cost and variability.
This whitepaper explores how those patterns can change, drawing on a claims-based analysis that has been independently reviewed by global healthcare consultancy, Milliman. Understand what happens when care shifts away from high-cost surgical pathways, and what that shift means for utilization, total spend, and ROI within a single plan year.³
4.7x
Gross ROI
$3,770
MSK spend reduction (PMPY)
132
Fewer surgeries (per 1,000)
$2,715
Surgery-related savings (PMPY)
What this whitepaper helps you evaluate
Whether reducing avoidable MSK surgeries can deliver defensible, near-term ROI for Medicare Advantage plans while supporting member outcomes and minimizing clinical and financial risk.
Key learnings inside the whitepaper
- Why reduced surgical utilization is a primary driver of MSK savings in Medicare Advantage populations
- How changes in downstream utilization lead to predictable, in-plan-year ROI
- Why engagement and completion rates among members aged 65+ indicate stronger adherence and durability
- How to interpret these findings in the context of Medicare Advantage benefit design and population risk
Contributors to White Paper

Exploring the breakthroughs behind AI Care
Footnotes
United States Bone and Joint Initiative. The burden of musculoskeletal diseases in the United States (BMUS). 3rd ed. 2014.
Dieleman JL, Cao J, Chapin A, et al. U.S. health care spending by payer and health condition, 1996–2016. JAMA. 2020;323(9):863–884. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.0734.
Thrive’s ROI methodology uses retrospective claims analysis with propensity score matching and difference-in-differences, consistent with standard observational health economics practices. This analysis is independently reviewed by Milliman.
Sword Health has published over 40 peer-reviewed studies and independently-validated claims analyses using real-world evidence to demonstrate improvements in pain, function, engagement, and productivity outcomes associated with Sword AI Care programs https://swordhealth.com/resources/clinical-studies